A Risk/Reward View of Vaccines

Addressing the confusion and presenting a different approach to the vaccine question as it relates to the frum community

For those interested in minimizing the growing Machlokes

Ver. 6/12/2019 (latest version at www.rodefshalom613.org) email rodef.shalom.613@gmail.com or leave a message at (414) 751-0001 with any corrections

An Important Notice For You-

This presentation is not pro-vaccine or anti-vaccine. This is about evaluating risk vs. benefit. And to attempt to determine if there is some way to bridge the gap on this topic.

Despite my intentions, however, I have come to understand that the information I am presenting is apparently considered dangerous by some, which is alarming in and of itself. I wish it were just some conspiracy theory that I could ignore. Unfortunately:

Capitol Hill and Silicon Valley have locked their sights on the next targets of a frightening free-speech-squelching purge¹:

“…independent citizens who dare to raise questions online about the safety and efficacy of vaccines. Under pressure from Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., Amazon pulled the documentaries “Vaxxed: From Cover-Up to Catastrophe,” “Man Made Epidemic” and “Shoot ’em Up: The Truth About Vaccines” from its Prime Video streaming service. Last week, Google-owned YouTube moved to demonetize “anti-vaccine” channels, tweak algorithms to suppress vaccine “conspiracy” videos and combat “vaccine hesitancy.” Pinterest blocks users from using the search terms “vaccine,” “vaccinations” and “anti-vax,” no matter the quality of the results. Facebook plans to downgrade vaccine skeptics’ content on newsfeeds, recommended user groups and ads.” -Michelle Malkin

If links are broken, please check website for the most current version.

Why You Should Read This

This is the story of my research into this incredibly complex topic, a summary of concerns, and a look at the risks and benefits. I examined the situation without fear and emotion but rather from a practical perspective aimed at resolving the issue.

There is a crisis in Klal Yisroel. Not everyone knows it yet. But there is a crisis. And it’s not going away…

  • A Rav told an Avrech that if the only other option is a get, you should take your children behind your wife’s back (to get the MMR)”. These rulings are apparently common and causing major Shalom Bayis issues.
  • People who choose not to vaccinate (vaccine skeptics) have been called rodfim and rotzchim.
  • A family was scheduled to visit their relatives in a New York community. The community informed them they were not welcome. They were forced to quickly find another place to stay.
  • A boy told the shadachan he will discontinue the shidduch because the girl said she did not think yeshivos should kick kids out of school.
  • A beloved Mechanech and a school principal were fired due to their views on vaccination.
  • Vaccine skeptics are not invited or are disinvited to family simchos or even to siblings’ homes
  • Grandparents are being told they can’t see their grandchildren if they don’t vaccinate.
  • Unvaccinated children were banned from participating in the Chidon HaTanach in Crown Heights.
  • Some Ba’alai Teshuva who don’t vaccinate are losing community support and are shut out and left on their own.
  • Rockland County’s recent (overturned) enactment which essentially put unvaccinated kids under house arrest was met with approval by a majority of the community.
  • Machlokes and lashon harah are rampant. And these are only some of the problems.https://nypost.com/2019/04/13/brooklyns-measles-epidemic-driving-bitter-divide-in-jewish-orthodox-community

What is the driving force behind all this divisiveness? Is there a way to return Shalom to our communities?

The Looming Catastrophe For Klal Yisroel, Ch”V

The following images are from a recent conversation on Facebook (link available upon request).

And The Crisis of Emunas Chachamim

  • People on both side of the debate are looking down on Rabbonim on the other side
  • Assuming the frum community is in line with the population, about 10-20% of frum population are vaccine skeptics and/or don’t vaccinate.
  • Vaccine skeptics are in shock at how they are being treated by mainstream Rabbonim. It is bad enough if their own Rav does not want to address their questions, but major Rabbinic leaders are also attacking them and their choices. And without hearing both sides of the issue or allowing for individual circumstances.
  • Some Rabbonim are encouraging people to moser to the authorities on people who don’t vaccinate – coordinated with the health department.
  • And the most painful to me personally: there are some askanim attempting to arrange meetings with Rabbonim to have them hear the other side, if only to be able to understand their pain. While it is gratifying that most Poskim are happy to hear the other side, sadly a few Rabbonim have either not been willing to meet, or treated the participants (often non-frum doctors) rudely and with disdain. From what I hear, this Chillul Hashem is beyond words

How I Went From Indifference to Cautious Investigation

  • Initially I didn’t pay much attention to the whole issue.
  • I was vaccinated as a child and I vaccinated my children. I have neighbors who did not vaccinate. Nice
    people even if a bit different (didn’t give their kids soda, ate organic, sprouts, etc.).
  • Once I saw kids being kicked out of school, and understanding how damaging that can be long-term, I
    started to network and reach out to some vaccine skeptics to gather more information and to try to
    understand where they are coming from.
  • Turns out that there is a segment of vaccine skeptics who are not typical; they’re into all sorts of
    alternative health things that I really don’t know anything about. And there are some who are into
    conspiracies that are difficult to believe (I admit to not having investigated them).
  • But I was surprised to find the majority are actually well educated and articulate. And they presented
    me with a lot of science-based information. It was hard to digest it all and took me quite a while to get
    through much of it.
  • Certainly some of the claims I was hearing did not make any sense, and upon investigation, I saw they
    are not true (e.g. Bill Gates did NOT say that he was vaccinating for population control). But just
    because some claims are unfounded, doesn’t mean that they are all wrong. So I researched further.
  • I was definitely not going to fall for the logical fallacy (the Genetic Fallacy) that information is not valid
    just because the source is not considered credible. I would evaluate each claim on its own merit and
    not based on my perception of the people who believe it or even the website where it is mentioned.
  • I tried to select links that represent what thoughtful and intelligent people are seeing that is leading
    them to be skeptical of vaccine safety and efficacy. I do not fall for the leftic tactic of delegitimizing the
    other side by calling everyone who disagrees a “conspiracy theorist” and by ignoring vaccine skeptic
    websites that rely on science-based arguments citing legitimate references and sources. YouTube
    videos are as credible as the people who speak.
  • Pro-vaccine arguments are well known. This document focuses on the vaccine skeptic case to
    determine if it has merit.

Who Am I And Why Do I Choose to Remain anonymous?

  • I am a regular guy who works and tries to learn at least 2 hours per day. I try to learn
    mussar daily. I have a Masters degree in business.
  • I go to mainstream medical doctors when sick and I don’t sell any health related products.
    I don’t have any obvious ne’gius in relation to the health industry or vaccines. All my children
    are B”H healthy and I don’t suspect that they were injured by vaccines.
  • However, just exploring this topic appears to be dangerous. Dr. Rich Roberts, a frum
    former owner of URL Pharma, Inc. (who reportedly made $800 million selling his company)
    and current CEO of Mutual Pharmaceutical Company, Inc. and Pharmaceutical Holdings
    Corp. hired a top law firm to, among other things, explore criminal prosecution against those
    he believes are profiting from questioning vaccines³ (I’d rather avoid the headaches).
  • My wife and my mother are concerned that if my name were connected to “anti-vaxxers”
    (a pejorative term we should all stop using) it would affect my children’s shidduchim. That is
    sad, but probably true.
    In light of these serious concerns, I ask you to please respect my request for privacy.


First I Read Both Sides of The Wakefield Study – Was It Really A Fraud?

Since the retracted Wakefield Study ⁴ is the one everyone points to in an effort to discredit people who don’t
vaccinate, I thought I’d take a look at that first.

  • What does the media report about the Wakefield Study? Dr. Andrew Wakefield and 12 other
    doctors published a paper that reported a connection between the MMR vaccine and autism. Journalist
    Brian Deer found the data presented in the paper was fraudulent, the procedures used to collect the
    data were unethical, and Wakefield had an undeclared conflict of interest. Dr. Wakefield and Dr. John
    Walker-Smith (a co-author) lost their medical licenses and the Lancet retracted the paper. Vaccine
    proponents commonly claim that vaccine skeptics believe in this study and are therefore mistaken.
  • Could “vaccine skeptics” not be aware that the study was retracted? Since the fact that the paper
    was retracted is noted in every article and speech on the topic, it was inconceivable to me that people
    who question vaccines could not know that this study was retracted, was declared fraudulent, and still
    be relying on it. It didn’t make sense to me so I took a closer look to see what was really going on.
  • What I learned about vaccine skeptics claims. I discovered that people who question vaccines are
    not basing their objections on Wakefield. There is much more information and many other studies upon
    which they base their opinions and form their conclusions.
  • Are media reports about the Wakefield Study credible? I realized that the controversy surrounding
    the study is not as cut and dry as we’ve been led to believe. It’s questionable if indeed any fraud was
    committed or even that the study actually concluded that the MMR vaccine causes autism. In any
    case, the Lancet, in an editorial, exonerated Wakefield of research fraud, and in fact, the GMC, which
    revoked their licences did not base it on fraud – that charge was evaluated and found not credible.
  • So I am left to wonder: Why is this apparent straw-man argument about Wakefield and the study still
    being used to discredit anyone questioning vaccines?

For more information on the Wakefield study, see Appendix A

Next, I Focused On Vaccine Safety – Do Problems Really Exist?

I discovered that:

  • Not all doctors agree that vaccines are safe.
    • Hundreds of doctors concerned about vaccines’ lack of safety and effectiveness have been
      speaking out for many years about their concerns.
  • A vast medical literature exists discussing vaccine safety issues.
    • There are hundreds of studies, documentaries, lectures by doctors, scientists, and even
      virologists and immunologists, as well as many seemingly well-researched books.
  • Vaccines contain many ingredients that are known toxins, and neurotoxins, as well as DNA
    fragments and other tissue from aborted human fetuses, and other ingredients that on their
    surface appear to be dangerous.
    • Vaccine ingredients are listed in vaccine package inserts.
    • Vaccines are not tested for carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, or impairment of fertility – per Section
      13.1 of vaccine package inserts.
    • Vaccines are being recommended to pregnant women as safe even though the FDA has no
      record of vaccines ever being tested for safety in pregnant women.⁸

I Soon Realized That It’s Not Just About Autism or Rare Cases.

There’s a lot of data showing that vaccines can have profound effects in many different ways, including:

  • Autoimmune diseases
    • As detailed in the medical textbook, Vaccines and Autoimmunity, by Prof. Yehuda
      Shoenfeld,MD, FRCP, et. al.
  • Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS)
    • Listed in the Infanrix vaccine package insert as a plausible serious adverse reaction. Cyanosis
      – turning blue from lack of oxygen in the bloodstream – is another one, of many.10 SIDS is also
      linked to other vaccines.11
  • Allergies
    • Amish don’t have allergies 12; Peanut allergies are recent. Now they are ubiquitous.13
  • Infertility
    • Associated with the HPV vaccines 14 and others15
  • Learning Disabilities16
  • Childhood cancer17 and childhood diabetes18

I Discovered That Even CDC & NIH Officials Admit There’s Risk

Center for Disease Control; National Institute for Health



Vaccine Manufacturers Aren’t Responsible For Product Safety

Numerous personal injury lawsuits were brought against vaccine manufacturers in the 1980s where injury
was proven in court. Many stopped making vaccines and lobbied Congress to pass a law absolving them
from responsibility for injuries and death.25 As a result:

    • Congress passed the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986 26 which prevents anyone
      injured or killed by a mandatory vaccine from suing the manufacturer!
    • Congress instituted the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (NVIC) , also referred to as
      Vaccine Court (although it’s not a court), in order to compensate families of those injured or killed by
      vaccines – in service of the greater good. This program
      • Has no judge, jury, or discovery proceedings and only accepts as valid certain injuries for certain
      • Is financed by a $0.75 surcharge on each vaccine – the vaccinated are covering the cost of
        vaccine damage.
    • Congress created the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) , a voluntary
      self-reporting system to collect information about post-approval vaccine injuries.
    • Vaccine manufacture then became a lucrative and growing segment of the pharmaceutical industry.
      • The number of vaccines rapidly increased from under 10 to 54 vaccine injections for children 27
        and growing. There are currently 300 vaccines under development.28

To date over $4 billion have been paid out in compensation for vaccine injuries.29 Over 89,000
serious reactions including deaths have been reported (est. to be only 1% of the actual total).30







30 https://medalerts.org; https://healthit.ahrq.gov/sites/default/files/docs/publication/r18hs017045-lazarus-final-report-2011.pdf

I Wondered About Herd Immunity

  • The reason generally given for mandating vaccines is because if at least 95% of the population
    is vaccinated then “the herd” will be protected.31
    That’s the concept that if enough people are
    immune to an illness through vaccination, then the virus stops circulating and as a result everyone (the
    “herd”) is protected, including those who can’t be vaccinated, like the immunocompromised and
  • There is an acknowledged 2-10% primary and secondary measles vaccine failure rate.33
  • The CDC recommends boosters for adults because vaccines do not give lifetime immunity
    (vaccine waning), as does actually getting the measles.34
    How long immunity actually lasts can
    vary greatly from person to person, found to be anywhere from 2 – 20 years.35,36

    Therefore, there is one thing we can be almost certain about: the vast majority of adults (including
    those mandating vaccines) are just as unvaccinated as any unvaccinated child.

    Since this means that only about 40% – 60% of the total population is vaccinated,
    the herd immunity theory is irrelevant.37






35 https://vaccinationnews.org/Scandals/Sept_6_02/waning_measles_vax_immunity.htm


37See Appendix E for more information

What About The Vaccine Skeptics’ Claim That Unvaxxed Kids Are Healthier?

I found some of the vaccinated vs. unvaccinated studies they point to as showing that unvaccinated kids are healthier and have less chronic illness.

1. Mawson study 40 – chart at right and a second
study41 (despite attempts to get it retracted) 42

2. Amish communities, main studies in Ohio,
Pennsylvania (including concerning information
about human and animal DNA studies) 43

3. Philip F. Incao, M.D.44 Homefirst Health
located in Chicago 45

4. Vaxxed vs. Unvaxxed Study of Mice
Implicates Hepatitis B Vaccine – media silent 46
To date, the CDC has not done their own
vaccinated vs unvaccinated retrospective








What About The Vaccine Skeptics’ Claim That Unvaxxed Kids Are Healthier? (Cont)

These graphs from the Children’s Health Defense Vaxx vs Unvaxxed Report – part 2a are derived from
study data published in medical journals and from data withheld by the CDC and obtained under the FOIA (Freedom of Information Act) ahttps://childrenshealthdefense.org/wp-content/uploads/07-01-19-Vaxxed-UnVaxxed-Part-2.pdf

What About The Vaccine Skeptics’ Claim That Unvaxxed Kids Are Healthier? (Cont)

Dr. Paul Thomas had an outsider conduct a study of the patients in his integrative pediatric practice.a The image below shows the Autism/ASD rates of children in his practice grouped by their vaccination status.

The table at the top right highlights the percentages of autism, ASD, and developmental delays for the children in each of the three vaccine groups.

The table below right shows the difference between the most vaccinated children who were born into his practice vs. children who came into his practice at 2
months (after receiving vaccines at birth).

a 5:05

And, If Our Immune System Is Still Largely A Mystery – Wow Can Scientists Really Be Sure of Anything Related to Vaccines?

“… the immune system remains a black box,” says Garry Fathman,
MD, a professor of immunology and rheumatology and associate
director of the Institute for Immunology, Transplantation and Infection
… “It’s staggeringly complex, comprising at least 15 different
interacting cell types that spew dozens of different molecules into the
blood to communicate with one another and to do battle. Within each
of those cells sit tens of thousands of genes whose activity can be
altered by age, exercise, infection, vaccination status, diet, stress, you
name it. … That’s an awful lot of moving parts. And we don’t really
know what the vast majority of them do, or should be doing …

Vaccines: a peek beneath the hood

With So Many Conflicting Opinions,
How Can I Really Be Sure of Anything Related to Vaccines?

  • But on the other hand, the vast majority of doctors, including my own doctor, who I
    trust, recommend vaccinating.
  • And for almost every claim, there is a counter claim from the other side.
    • I went through a lot of these counterclaims. Some of them get very technical and they may have
      valid points. It is very complex and can be confusing.
    • Most of them are by people who don’t seem to have any better credentials than the skeptics.
    • Many make ad-hominem attacks against and are dismissive of anyone who voices any concern
      about vaccine safety, including leading doctors and researchers who are experts in the field. This
      takes away from their independence and credibility.
    • In many cases, when I reviewed the source material, it did not support the pro-vaccine
      conclusion that they were claiming.
    • A Tale of Two Sides details a debate of the issues in depth for those interested in the studies on
      both sides.
  • So, how does one make a decision on how to behave?
  • Should we continue to pressure everyone to vaccinate and potentially hurt
    thousands of children and adults?
  • Is there room for “to each his own” or do the unvaccinated really represent a

Due to The Complexity of The Issue, I Decided to Try and Analyze The Situation Like an Economist – Risk vs. Benefit

  • Clearly, there is some degree of risk, but how much?
    • Vaccines, like every manufactured drug, may have side effects and may
      not work for everyone.
    • Some children (and adults) are seriously injured and some even die.
  • Yet, if vaccines really save hundreds of thousands of lives then perhaps that is
    a price worth paying for the greater good.
  • Perhaps comparing the numbers might provide the answers.
  • However, because of the clear correlation of death with sanitation, malnutrition,
    and extreme poverty, we will focus on US data (Madagascar deaths from
    measles, while unfortunate, do not impact the risk/benefit in the US).

First, I Wanted A Perspective on US Deaths

How many people died
from epidemics in the
pre-vaccine era?

  • 675,000 total – 1918
    Spanish Flu
  • About 14,450 total (14
    per 100,000) –

    Measles deaths in
    1917 48
  • 4,317 total – 1849 St.
    Louis Cholera
    Epidemic 49




How many people die from other than vaccine preventable causes today?

  • Medical related
    • 250,000 50 – 440,00051 annually – Medical error (the third leading cause of
      death in the US)
    • 128,000 annually – Properly prescribed medication 52
    • 70,237 Drug overdose – 2017 (increases yearly – up from 16,849 in 1999)53
    • 48,000 annually – Hospital acquired infections 54
  • 42,000 annually – Second hand smoke55
  • Approximately 40,000 annually – Motor vehicle accidents56
  • 3,868 annually – Drownings57
  • 3,607 (includes 1,500 SIDS) – SUID (Sudden unexplained infant
    death) 58


  • About 250 annually – Allergic reactions59











Then I Looked at The Number of Reported Vaccine Adverse Events60

The VAERS statistics are estimated to be only 1-10% of actual numbers.61,62

Vaccine related injuries or deaths reported to VAERS – 1990 to present (4/9/2019)

  • For all vaccines:
    • Serious: 89,747 reported
      897,470 – 8,974,700 estimated actual
    • Life threatening: 12,210 reported
      122,100 – 1,221,000 estimated actual
    • Deaths: 7,645 reported
      76,450 – 764,500 estimated actual
  • For measles vaccine:
    • Serious: 9,110 reported 91,100 – 911,000 estimated actual
    • Life threatening: 1,330 reported 13300 – 133,000 estimated actual
    • Deaths: 459 reported 4,590- 45,900 estimated actual

Estimated average annual damage from all
vaccines (estimated actual based on 1% to
10% reporting rate):

  • 2,730 – 27,300 deaths
  • 31,868 – 318,680 serious reactions.
  • With approximately 300 million vaccines per
    year, that is between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in

Vaccine Court claims and compensation 63
since its inception in 1989:

  • 6,305 injury and death claims compensated
  • 2,751 claims paid for flu shot injuries
  • $4.03 billion paid out for injuries (since 1990)

How Do We Die?

A graphic picture of the various causes of death – past and present.

My Question – What Is The True Risk of Death From Measles?

  • The Measles Vaccine was introduced in 1963.
  • So I figured, let’s look at the average number of US measles deaths for the five
    years prior to try to get a sense of the potential benefit from the vaccine.
  • Note that deaths from 3rd world countries are used to inflate the perception of risk.
    But those countries have sewage in drinking water, malnutrition, and high death
    rates in general. And unreliable medical reporting. We must determine US health
    policy based on US data which is more accurate and relevant.
  • I figured it was at least 10,000 per year before the vaccine was invented.

What would you guess?

You can turn to the next slide after you guess.

Here’s What I Found62:Average Number of US Measles Deaths Annually In The Five Years Prior To The Introduction of The Measles Vaccine


That is 1 in 500,000*

Out of a population of about 200 million at the time. Considering that the entire population is vaccinated and the risk is based on total population,
and apples-to-apples comparison should compare risk of measles death from the entire population


Here’s an Historical Look – Measles Death Had Declined By 98% BEFORE The Vaccine Was Introduced



Yes. Mortality Rates Decreased 98% BEFORE The Vaccine.

This chart63 really changed my perspective.

Turns out that improvements in sanitation get most of the credit.

There were never vaccines for Scarlet Fever or Typhoid, yetthere are now so few cases that the CDC no longer tracks them.

See Vaccines: A peek beneath the hood for more information.64



Measles Deaths In Other Countries BEFORE The Vaccine!

In England and Wales (top graph)
measles deaths in the five years before the
vaccine was introduced in 1968, hovered
around 100 +/- with a high of 127 & low of

For information on UK measles notifications and deaths see:

In France (bottom graph) the vaccine was introduced in 1966. With a vaccination rate under 20% in 1983 the death rate was 0.56/million; with a vaccination rate of 40% 1989 the death rate was 1 in 19 million. UK and France graphs and data:



Risk of Death From a Cause In 2000 vs Risk of Death From Measles In 1962

I Also Found Evidence of Potential Measles Health Benefits

  • Provides Lifelong immunity 65
    • Before a vaccine was available, infection with measles virus was nearly universal during
      childhood, and more than 90% of persons had lifelong immunity by 15 years of age.
    • Mothers could transfer measles antibodies to their babies, protecting them during the critical
      months of life.66

The MMR vaccine, does not provide robust or lifelong immunity to measles. At best, immunity
only lasts several years, and successively less effective booster shots are required. Today, adults
and infants are contracting measles, at ages when it is significantly more dangerous.67

    • Helps children develop a strong and mature immune system
      • Measles (and other childhood illnesses) stimulate both the Th1 and Th2 components of the
        immune system.
      • Th1 cells thwart cancer. If it does not get fully developed in childhood a person may be more
        cancer prone.
      • When the Th1 and Th2 components are in balance, individuals are less likely to have asthma,
        allergies, and autoimmune diseases.

The MMR vaccine (like most vaccines) stimulates predominately the Th2 side.68

    • Studies show disease protection from the MMR vaccine

Women who had mumps during childhood have lower incidences of ovarian cancer 69

Other studies show benefits including cancer protection70, heart protection 71, and more72.

65 https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/meas.html



68see note 66


70 https://icandecide.org/white-papers/Publications-Regarding-Vaccine-Safety.pdf p3


72 http://www.greenmedinfo.com/keyword/health-benefits-measles-infection 30

Are Measles Deaths As High As 1 Out of 1,000 Like The CDC Says?

The CDC, on page 4 (image top right) of their
measles data slide presentation (a) shows that
prior to 1963 when the measles vaccine was
put into use there were:

  • 3 to 4 million cases of measles (est.)
  • Close to 500,000 cases reported (1 out
    of 7 or 8)
  • 48,000 hospitalizations (1 out of 73
    cases or 1 out of 10 reported)
  • 450 to 500 deaths (a slight exaggeration
    – refer back to pg. 23)

Now, I did the math myself:

    • 432 deaths out of 3-4,000,000 cases is
      1 out of 7-9,000, so, on average, the
      death rate was 1 out of 8,000
      I then looked at page 7 (image lower right) of
      the same CDC document:
    • Hospitalization – 1 out of 4 cases (vs. 1
      out of 73)
    • Death – 1-2 out of 1,000 cases (vs. 1 out
      of 8,000)
Why is the CDC misrepresenting the facts?

(Cont.)(a) https://www.cdc.gov/measles/downloads/measlesdataandstatsslideset.pdf

Are Measles Deaths As High As 1 Out of 1,000 Like The CDC Says? Cont.

This comes from another CDC publication, Achievements in Public Health, 1900-1999 Impact of Vaccines Universally Recommended for Children United States, 1990-1998 (b) (see quoted text above right) where they reported an average of 432 cases of measles prior to vaccination.

They state that incidence of measles cases and deaths only started declining after 1965 and then look at the graphs at the bottom right, from 1912 – 1959,
which show the cyclical nature of measles outbreaks with a little over 200 reported cases in 1959.

Also notice the precipitous 98% decline in measles deaths from 1912 – 1959 with a drop from about 13 cases to 0.2 cases per 100,000 population.. (See previous graphs here and here for data past 1959 for measles and other infectious diseases.) The 1960 measles death rate as recorded in the CDC publication Vital Statistics in the United States, 1940-1960 (b) was also 0.2 per 100,000 or 1 in 500,000 per population (c).

Again we see the CDC is misrepresenting (lying) about the US measles death rate pre-vaccination and the role that vaccines played in it’s decline.

(b) https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00056803.htm
(c) https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsus/vsrates1940_60.pdf pg 547

“Measles vaccine was licensed in the United States in 1963. During 1958-1962, an average of 503,282 measles cases and 432 measles-associated deaths were reported
each year (9-11). Measles incidence and deaths began to decline in 1965 and continued a 33-year downward trend.” Achievements in Public Health

I Wanted to Figure Out What The Measles Death Rate Would Be Today If There Had
Been No Vaccine.

While we can’t know for sure, the data does show that:

    • Without any vaccine, Scarlet Fever and Typhoid deaths in the US went down to almost zero.73
      • Reductions in those deaths were tracked along with reductions in measles deaths.
      • Before the vaccine, Measles deaths in England and Wales went down to almost zero.
      • Before the vaccine, Measles deaths in France had gone down about 98% and to almost zero even while a large majority of the population had never been vaccinated.
      • In the United States:
        • Even with the relatively low vaccination rates in the years following 1963, the chart showed that
          measles death rate was reduced to under 100 per year and steadily decreased toward zero.
        • Since 2004: The number of deaths from measles is somewhere between 3 and 8; there have
          only been.two official deaths from measles since 2003. 74
          • Those deaths were really related to other causes.75
        • Since 2004: The number of MMR/MMRV vaccine deaths reported to VAERS is 143.76

75Coming Appendix

Why Are There More Measles Cases In Recent Years?

The graph at the right shows that the number of 2019 measles cases has already surpassed those of the previous 10 years. (Measles cases have always increased and declined in a cyclical

I discovered several plausible reasons that may account for the not unexpected resurgence of measles.

  • Shedding and transmission of vaccine strain measles virus (See Appendix U)
  • A resurgence of measles was predicted by Drs. Heffernan and Keeling in 2009. This
  • would be a consequence of waning vaccine immunity and absence of circulating infection due to high vaccination rates; circulating infection used to provide natural,
    asymptomatic boosters (a).

  • Dr. Gary Poland, editor of the journal Vaccine, in 2012 called measles a disease of the vaccinated, citing primary and secondary vaccine failure in between 2-10% of all
    vaccinees, along with waning immunity, to be factors influencing the resurgence of measles among highly vaccinated populations (b).
  • Dr. David. L. Levy’s computer model (1984) predicted an increase in the percentage of people susceptible to measles in the US, so
    that by 2050, despite an initial downturn from

1978 through 1981, the percentage of the population susceptible to measles (mostly children below the age of 10 prior to vaccination) will have surpassed that of the
pre-vaccine era and will be evenly spread across the entire population. The number of susceptibles started increasing annually after 1981.This is without even considering waning
immunity (c).

(a) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2677258/
(b) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3905323/
(c) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6741921

1978 through 1981, the percentage of the population susceptible to measles (mostly children below the age of 10 prior to vaccination) will have surpassed that of the
pre-vaccine era and will be evenly spread across the entire population. The number of susceptibles started increasing annually after 1981.This is without even considering waning
immunity (c).

(a) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2677258/
(b) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3905323/
(c) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6741921

So, What Is The Real Current Risk of Measles?

We don’t really know what would happen if EVERYONE stopped receiving the vaccine. Perhaps there would be some deaths; perhaps not.

But we DO know the risk with current US state child vaccination rates of between 88 – 97.6%.77 (New York’s rate is 92.5% and New Jersey’s is 89% and remember that the immunization rate was less than 40% when deaths went down to near zero in France.)

With 8 deaths in the past 16 years78 that risk is about 1 in 600 million or, for all practical purposes, zero. (This can be reduced even further with the use of vitamin A.79)

Considering the many ways people can die, measles80,81 may be the least of our concerns.With all the outbreaks over the past years, practically no one in the US died or was left with
any lifelong injury82.





80For a humorous but eye-opening look at Measles, Back In The Days Before The Marketing Of The Vaccine

81Coming – Appendix for potential injuries caused by measles.
82 Coming – Appendix for details. In Jerusalem, the baby who had died had already recovered from measles; she had Down’s Syndrome
and a pre-existing heart condition.

Here’s The Final Economist’s Verdict

  • While there is a very real risk of serious injury or death from vaccines,
    the percent of risk is not clear.
  • However there are, reportedly, hundreds of people in our community
    who claim their previously healthy child was injured immediately by
  • And at the current rate of vaccination the risk of death from measles
    is about 1 in 600 million.
    Considering the data from England, Whales,
    and France, even with much lower vaccination rates of 20% – 40%, and
    even with no vaccination at all, the death rate from measles is unlikely
    to be greater than 1 out of 2 million.
  • So there does not seem to be a compelling need for any new mandates
    such as denying religious exemptions or forcing kids out of school and
    public spaces. Even states with existing exemptions have about 90+%
    child vaccination rates – more than enough, as we have seen, to keep
    deaths at 1 in 600 million.

Conclusion: So Is All The Hype And Destruction Worth It?

Irrational FEAR and Mass-Hysteria is driving an emotional reaction that is not backed
by the scientific facts. Vested interests marketing hype to blame “anti-vaxxers” for
disease in order to get that last 10% of the market is not science.

Thousands of parents are being forced to have their children undergo a medical
procedure their preferred doctors believe is harmful to them. They have to hide their
viewpoints and meet in secret in order to avoid being denigrated and ostracized by our
community. As you can see, rational people have concerns and they are not going
away. In fact they are growing. The demonization of this group is clearly irrational and
emotional and not fact-based. Do we want to drive 10% – 20% of our community to have
their own schools, their own shuls, make shidduchim only internally? Is this what H’
wants of us?

The obvious solution is do what has worked perfectly well for over 20 years:
If there is an outbreak in a particular school, unvaccinated kids could stay home until
the outbreak has passed. Otherwise, let everyone follow their own medical expert and
respect individual choices.

And we need to fight any law to reduce our religious rights. Or that will come back to
haunt us.

Please share this with anyone who is concerned about the growing Machlokes and
wants to encourage Shalom within our community.
Feedback and corrections are encouraged.

Critical Update As of 4/9/19

The World Health Organization initiated a massive MMR immunization campaign in Ukraine in
2017 to bring the vaccination rate up from 31% (with few cases of measles or deaths) to 95%. As
the campaign rolled out, the incidence of measles began to increase dramatically.

My greatest concern right now are the implications that the Ukraine immunization
campaign has for our community.
Because of the massive number of vaccinations that have
being given to children and adults it is possible that a vaccine-strain outbreak, not a wild-type
measles outbreak, will occur which can apparently cause more cases of measles and possibly
major health issues and even, ch”v, death.

Naturally, if someone is hospitalized or ch”v dies or, the world will go crazy and attack vaccine
skeptics and people who don’t vaccinate. Everyone will jump on the bandwagon to pass laws
forcing them to vaccinate. This can, of course, make things worse.

If this should happen there are three things we must find out first – and do it BEFORE PANICKING:

1. Did sick kids get vaccinated recently?
2. Did they ever get vaccinated?
3. Are all the cases of measles lab-confirmed and do the lab results show wild-type or
vaccine-strain measles?

Please see Appendix U for more information about the Ukraine measles epidemic.

End of Main Presentation – Next Steps

The remainder of this presentation are Appendices that provide backup and additional information. Some of this information is crucial to understanding the scope of the issue and worth reading if you are interested in the subject.

If you read nothing else, please read Appendix O – Religious Exemption – Do you really want to give that up? Even if you believe everyone should get the measles vaccine, not all vaccines are equal and there are 300 in the pipeline.

If you have experienced a vaccine injury within 24-48 hours of getting a vaccine, or if you have evidence that the injury was caused by a vaccine, please email rodef.shalom.613@gmail.com or leave a detailed message at (414) 751-0001 so we can share this information with the community.

To join the conversation about how we can increase Shalom and tolerance back into our discourse, please visit: www.rodefshalom613.org

Comparison of Risks Between Different Vaccines

● Death and Severe Injury numbers annualized average for the 11 years actual reported to VAERS from 2007 to 4/10/19. (Note that actual injuries may be
significantly higher as reporting is recognized to be from <1%** - 10% of the total injuries; this would make the risk up to 100 times higher than listed here).
Estimate Deaths use 50 times higher (between 10% and 100%)

● “Death before vaccine” numbers are the annual deaths in the few years prior to the vaccine or numbers the CDC estimates are saved annually.

● This is a preliminary analysis and has not been fully vetted. I am seeking people interested in helping to analyze these numbers to improve its
accuracy. Please email me to collaborate.

● The vaccines changed during the 11-year period and the data

is complex with mixing of vaccines; please keep this mind as the
data does not reflect that.

* “Hep B (Mother WITH Heb B)” are not death rate but rather CDC estimated annualized number of children with lifelong illness
from Hep B.


Information For Informed Decision About Vaccines

● The HPV vaccine protects against several different strains of Human Papillomavirus, a sexually transmitted disease implicated in some cervical cancers. STDs are not a major concern in the Orthodox Jewish community (although possibly more than understood) and it has been long known that cervical cancer risk is very low for Jewish women (http://www.cirp.org/library/disease/cancer/menczer1/ and even more rare for women who keep family purity laws. Furthermore, cervical cancer can be prevented by annual pap smears (the US death rate is 0.00002) https://www.cdc.gov/std/hpv/stdfact-hpv-vaccine-young-women.htm). Although most cervical cancers are diagnosed in mid-life and the duration of vaccine immunity is not known, the vaccine is recommended for girls (and boys) as young as 9 years old.

● The Hepatitis B vaccine is given to infants at birth. Hepatitis B is a bloodborne illness, usually
acquired by drug addicts and prostitutes. Women are screened during pregnancy for Hepatitis B. If the
mother is a carrier then this is an important vaccine for the baby to get.
For adults, it is important
for people who are in jobs or whose lifestyles would expose them to the virus.

● The Rotavirus vaccine is given to infants. While this virus causes death from dehydration in underdeveloped countries, babies in the United States do not typically die from rotavirus.

Vaccines for non-communicable diseases – Tetanus, Hepatitis B, HPV

● Vaccines which do not prevent transmission – acellular Pertussis (pertussis variants
(PRN-negative strains) currently circulating in the USA acquired a selective advantage to infect those
who are up-to-date for their DTaP boosters) Diptheria, Influenza vaccine (Hib) only covers one strain
of influenza causing dominance to shift towards other strains, IPV (inactivated poliovirus vaccine);
Wild polio no longer exists in the US for at least 20 years. Should wild polio be introduced, the IPV will
not stop transmission.